Toronto's Condo Market Just Sent Sellers a Warning — and Buyers an Invitation

New listings are pulling back for a second straight month, sales are climbing, and inventory just hit its tightest level since fall 2024. Here's what it actually means if you own one, want one, or are still sitting on the fence.

I've been watching this data close every month, and June is the first time in a while I'd call the shift undeniable. Not because any single number is dramatic — it's that all four are moving in the same direction at once. That doesn't happen by accident.

−18%NEW LISTINGS, YOY

+6.7%SALES, YOY

−8%PRICES, YOY

5.0MONTHS OF INVENTORY

NEW LISTINGS ARE DRYING UP

New listings have now fallen for a second consecutive month, and they're down 18% compared to this time last year. Sellers who don't have to sell are staying put — and I don't blame them. Nobody wants to list into a market where the buyer across the table has spent the last two years reading headlines about declining condo prices.

Fewer new listings means fewer choices for buyers. It's the first domino, and everything below follows from it.

SALES ARE CLIMBING — READ THIS CAREFULLY

Sales are up 5.6% month-over-month and 6.7% year-over-year. On its own, that sounds like a market heating up. It isn't — not yet.

More sales does not mean higher prices. It means more buyers are willing to transact at today's prices. Those are two very different markets.

This is the distinction I see missed constantly, including by people who should know better. Rising sales volume tells you demand is there. It doesn't tell you sellers are getting what they want. Right now, they mostly aren't.

PRICES HAVEN'T MOVED — YET

Condo prices were flat month-over-month and remain down 8% year-over-year. Sellers are not getting relief from this rebound in activity, at least not yet. If you bought at the peak, this is still not your market to cash out in.

INVENTORY IS TIGHTENING FASTER THAN PEOPLE REALIZE

This is the number that actually matters most to me. Months of inventory sits at 5 — the lowest it's been since fall 2024. A year ago at this exact point, we were sitting at 7.3 months. That's a meaningful compression in twelve months.

JUNE 2026

5.0 months

JUNE 2025

7.3 months

For context, 5 to 6 months of inventory is generally considered a balanced market — not tilted decisively toward buyers or sellers. We're now sitting right at the edge of that range, moving toward it from a much more buyer-favourable position. If this trend holds, the "buyer's market" framing that's dominated condo conversations for two years starts to expire.

MY TAKEInventory compressing this fast, while prices are still soft, is exactly the setup that precedes a pricing floor. It doesn't mean prices jump next month. It means the conditions that have kept them falling are running out of runway.

OVERALL: THIS IS AN OPPORTUNITY, AND I'LL SAY SO PLAINLY

I'm not going to hedge on this one. Condos are currently one of the most active segments of the Toronto housing market, and the reason is straightforward: affordability. Cost of entry into a condo is the lowest relative barrier in this city right now, at a moment when the broader rent-versus-buy math is genuinely shifting.

We're getting close to a tipping point where renting no longer looks like the obvious safer bet compared to buying — not because rents are spiking, but because condo prices have compressed enough, and inventory has thinned enough, that the calculation is starting to favour ownership again for people with a five-year-plus horizon.

My honest read: buyers who wait for a headline confirming the market has "turned" will be buying after the best pricing has already gone. This window — soft prices, tightening supply, sellers not yet feeling empowered — doesn't last long once it's recognized publicly. It rarely does.

If you're a buyer

You're negotiating in a market where prices haven't caught up to tightening supply. That gap closes. This is the window, not next spring.

If you're a seller

Don't expect a bidding war yet — but don't wait for one either. Fewer listings means less competition for your unit right now, even if the price hasn't recovered.

If you're watching from the sidelines

The signal to watch isn't the price. It's months of inventory. When that number drops below 5 and holds, the pricing conversation changes fast.

Every market eventually stops looking like the last two years. This one just started.

Thinking About Buying or Selling a Condo?

Let's talk through what this shift means for your specific building, neighbourhood, and timeline.

Get in Touch

Data source: Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB), Market Watch Report, June 2026, City of Toronto condo apartment segment. Market conditions vary by neighbourhood and building; this analysis reflects general City of Toronto trends and should not be relied upon as a substitute for a property-specific evaluation. Macallum Tepsich, Sales Representative, Chestnut Park Real Estate Limited, Brokerage. Not intended to solicit properties currently listed for sale.